Predictions
6. Januar 2008
Wenn Dion Hinchliffe zur Feder greift, lohnt die Lektüre. Das gilt auch für seine Web 2.0 Predictions for 2008. In Sachen offene Schnittstellen (API), MashUps, Widgets und Ajax setzt er ein paar interessante Statements ab, speziell im Hinblick auf tragfähige Geschäftsmodelle versus Konjunkturabkühlung. Drei Häppchen für den kleinen Hunger zwischendurch – den Rest bitte selbst lesen!
- Open APIs finally go beyond free as successful business models emerge. Sites like Twitter are finding that their APIs get ten times the use of the site itself (Web 2.0 principle: A platform beats an application every time), but monetizing them is a challenge for all but a few major player such as Amazon.
- Rich Internet Application (RIA) platforms such as Adobe AIR and Microsoft’s Silverlight get major traction as the development of non-trivial Web applications in Ajax remains difficult and time-consuming. While Ajax is made from 100% open Web standards, it was never explicitly designed for the job of creating rich user experiences and it’s proven tough going for many companies trying to create next generation Web experiences in Ajax. Adobe and Microsoft have been making enormous investments in browser plug-ins and supporting development tools that will change the way the Web will look in 2008 and beyond. These two platforms will be huge successes this year, despite the many challenges that RIA platforms face such as supporting page view-based business models, analytics, accessibility, network effects, link structure, search engine optimzation (SEO) and more.
- A wave of new killer mobile Web applications (and their startups) appear, spurred by the iPhone Software Development Kit (SDK) and ever more untethered workers. Twitter was likely just the first in an era of fundamentally network-oriented applications with communications and collaboration at their design core. The release of the iPhone last year proved that Web apps could be nearly as functional and pleasing as desktop apps. The coming iPhone SDK, which will let anyone build iPhone software legally, will help usher in a new era of useful new consumer and business mobile applications, many which will sport Web 2.0 capabilities or even be fundamentally Web 2.0 based, such as route capturing software and automatic traffic tracking, particularly as more mobile devices add GPS capability in 2008.
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